Will the 2022 presidential elections be a faceoff between two mayors?
While Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte has been leading in a number of nationwide voter preference surveys, a poll by RLR Research and Analysis Inc. showed Manila Mayor Isko Moreno will handily win the presidential race in Luzon if the May 2022 elections were held this month.
Results of RLR’s survey held from February 13 to 19, 2021 in 10 vote-rich provinces in Luzon showed Moreno as the leading presidential contender, with 27 percent of respondents choosing him. The research firm said the voter preference for the mayor translates to around 4.3 million votes.
Senator Grace Poe is in far second place with a voter preference rating of 17 percent, followed by Duterte and former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., who are tied in third place at 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
Coming in at fourth place is Senator Manny Pacquiao with 10 percent, followed by Senator Bong Go with 5 percent. Tied in sixth place are Senator Panfilo Lacson and former senator Manny Villar, whose voter preference rating was at 2 percent.
Vice President Leni Robredo was not included among the potential presidential candidates for the survey.
RLR’s survey was conducted in the following vote rich Luzon provinces, which had a total of 16.2 million registered voters in the 2019 elections. These are: Pangasinan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Quezon and Rizal.
A total of 2,000 respondents participated in the survey, which had a margin of error of plus/minus 2 percent. RLR said the sample size for each province was allocated proportional to the population size.
Moreno led in all provinces included in the survey except in Pangasinan, where Poe and Marcos were the preferred candidates.
Duterte and Moreno shared the lead in Nueva Ecija and Pampanga, while he’s tied with Poe in Quezon. Interestingly, Batangas voters were still undecided on who to vote for president.
Should Moreno decide not to run for president, the politikos who stand to benefit from his votes based on the survey are Duterte, Poe and Pacquiao.